CLEAR International has issued a new report forecasting the demand for heavy goods trailers in Western Europe to 2019.
In 2015 the trailer market has got off to a strong start with registrations of new trailers forecast to grow by 12.8% in the first half and 4.7% in the second. Overall then, the market will be stronger than anticipated six months ago.
The reason is that several markets which have struggled since the GFC (global financial crisis) have started 2015 very strongly. Italy for example is up 68% in the first four months of the year and will finish the year up be a similar percentage. Spain, where registrations last year were half pre-crisis levels, has started the year up 60%.
Two countries which have recovered quite well from the crisis have also had strong starts. The Netherland is up 31% for the first four months of the year suggesting that 2015 trailer demand will be very healthy. The UK, which set a new record for trailer demand in 2014 looks set for another very strong year.
These four countries plus Denmark will account for almost all the extra demand for trailers compared to last year’s forecast figure. Italy and the Netherlands will also be strong in 2016.
Gary Beecroft, Managing Director of CLEAR added, “What we are seeing in these markets is basically catch-up demand. In many European markets the demand for new trailers has been so far below the long term trend level for so many years that, as soon as companies regain the confidence to invest in new assets, the floodgates are opened and two or three years of exceptional increases are possible. ”
However, it must be remembered that in some cases, e.g., Italy and Spain plus Portugal and Ireland, we are starting out from a very low base.
Within big 7 economies of Western Europe in 2015, all are forecast to have accelerating GDP growth and higher business investment with the sole exception of Italy, which will follow the pack in 2016.
The forecast for new trailer demand is that it will match the level of 2006 by 2016. It remains unlikely that the demand level of 2007/8 will be seen again. However, 2006 was the third highest trailer registrations level on record.
Trailer production, having fallen by 9.2% from the 2011 level, had a 12.2% increase in 2014. Further increases are forecast for 2015/16.
77% of all goods in Europe are moved by road and most of that proportion is transported on a trailer.
The West European Trailer Market Report (June 2015), with forecasts to 2019, can be obtained from CLEAR using the contact details below. A new report for the East European market was issued in April 2015. A Global Trailer Database will be available in July 2015.
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CLEAR is a consulting group working with companies active in automotive and transport markets. Projects focus on the future demand for products as a result of changes in technology, markets, business processes and legislation. Clients include component manufacturers, vehicle manufacturers, investment banks, management consultants, materials producers and government bodies.
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